Top 15 Most Dangerous Cities in California (2025-2026)
Go Back To Previous PageKey Findings
The 40-60 word answer: Emeryville and Commerce still post California’s highest per-capita crime rates, but both are small cities whose tiny residential populations are dwarfed by daytime commercial and retail activity — a well-documented statistical effect that inflates their per-capita numbers. Oakland, long cited as the state’s most violent large city, recorded 67 homicides in 2025, down sharply from 86 in 2024 and 126 in 2023.
Emeryville has a violent crime rate historically cited around 2,356 per 100,000 residents, driven overwhelmingly by property crime (retail theft alone accounts for a majority of incidents) rather than violent crime, against a residential population of only about 12,905. Commerce shows a similar pattern — a small residential population (roughly 12,000-13,000) alongside a major shopping district, casino, and rail yards that draw heavy non-resident traffic.
Are California Cities Dangerous?
The 40-60 word answer: California’s statewide violent crime rate fell roughly 5-6% from 2023 to 2024, per the state DOJ’s official 2024 report — the first full-year decline since the pandemic-era spike, continuing into 2025. It’s still running somewhat above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, but the “steadily rising since 2020” narrative some older articles repeat is no longer accurate.
California’s Department of Justice “Crime in CA 2024” report (released July 2025) shows the statewide violent crime rate dropped from roughly 508-511 per 100,000 residents in 2023 to about 480-481 in 2024. Homicides fell 10-13.5%, aggravated assault fell 4.8-6.5%, and robbery fell 6.3-7.5% year over year; rape was the one category that rose. PPIC and CJCJ data both point to the decline continuing through 2025 in major CA population centers, with homicides down roughly 18% and violent crime down roughly 12% in some tracked areas. The rate is still around 9.8% above 2019 levels, so California remains elevated relative to the pre-pandemic baseline, even as the post-2021 trend is now clearly downward rather than upward.
15 Most Dangerous Cities in California
- Emeryville
- Commerce
- Oakland
- San Bernardino
- Stockton
- Compton
- Vallejo
- Grass Valley
- Richmond
- Barstow
- Lancaster
- Modesto
- Inglewood
- Merced
- Bakersfield
1. Emeryville
Emeryville tops per-capita crime rankings with a violent crime rate historically cited around 2,356 per 100,000 residents. But with a population of just 12,905, this is a case where the statistical mechanics matter: heavy retail and commercial density draws large numbers of non-residents daily, and property crime (especially retail theft, accounting for a majority of incidents here) against those businesses still counts against the small resident population in per-capita math.
It’s a real crime, but predominantly property crime, not the violent-crime-dominant picture the headline rate alone suggests. It’s also one of the cheapest places to live in the state.
2. Commerce
Commerce, in Southeast Los Angeles County, has a residential population of roughly 12,000- 13,000 alongside a major shopping district, a casino, and significant rail yard activity — a similar small-population, high-commercial-footprint pattern to Emeryville.
Its violent crime rate has been cited at around 1,553 incidents per 100,000 residents. As with Emeryville, treat the per-capita rate as reflecting Commerce’s unusual population-to-commercial-activity ratio rather than a direct comparison to a typical residential city.
3. Oakland
The 40-60 word answer: Yes, Oakland’s violent crime rate remains above the national average, but 2025 marked its second consecutive year of major decline: 67 homicides, down from 86 in 2024 and 126 in 2023, with citywide violent crime down 25% in 2025 alone — the city’s largest single-year homicide drop in decades.
Oakland Police Department’s year-end reporting and multiple local outlets (Oaklandside, KQED, local news) confirm the trend: homicides fell 33% in 2024 compared to 2023, and then fell another 22% in 2025. Armed robberies reportedly fell by over 40% and commercial burglaries by roughly 47% in the same period. City officials credit the Ceasefire violence-intervention program, among other factors, though some outlets note ongoing debate about data reporting practices.
Vehicle theft, property theft, burglary, and assault remain the most commonly reported crime types in the city, and gang-related gun violence remains a real problem in parts of Oakland — the decline doesn’t mean the underlying issues are solved, but the trajectory is genuinely and substantially improving, not worsening. Situated in Alameda County, Oakland is a key commercial hub in the East Bay, with a population of 440,646, ranking as the third-largest city in the Bay Area and the eighth-largest in California.
4. San Bernardino
San Bernardino remains one of the more dangerous cities in Southern California.
With a population of 222,101, its violent crime rate has historically run well above the national average, with robbery and aggravated assault among the more significant contributors in recent years. As with the rest of this list, expect current 2025 conditions to track the statewide improvement rather than the older upward trend some sources still cite.
5. Stockton
In San Joaquin County, Stockton is the most populous city on this list from California’s Central Valley region. With a population of 320,804, Stockton’s violent crime rate has historically run well above national and state averages, with property crime rates also elevated relative to similarly-sized cities.
6. Compton
Compton, in the South Los Angeles region, has a population of 97,740 and has historically posted a violent crime rate well above the national average, with homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults the most common contributors.
The city has pursued active crime-reduction initiatives in recent years, consistent with the broader statewide decline.
7. Vallejo
Vallejo, population 124,886, has grappled with elevated crime for years, with aggravated assault and robbery the most common violent crimes, and burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft the most common property crimes.
The city has made progress in recent years, consistent with the statewide trend, though it remains among California’s higher-crime cities.
8. Grass Valley
Grass Valley, in the Sierra Nevada foothills about an hour from Sacramento, has a population of 13,614.
Originally a Gold Rush-era mining town, it has seen population decline over time alongside elevated crime, and reports one of the higher auto theft rates in California relative to its size.
9. Richmond
Richmond, in the San Francisco Bay Area, has a population of 110,567 and offers a relatively more affordable option near San Francisco, alongside a historically elevated violent crime rate. Vehicle and property theft have been common in recent years.
Residents generally consider the northeastern part of the city safer, while the central “Iron Triangle” area has historically seen a higher concentration of crime. Richmond is generally considered safer than neighboring Oakland, though it remains among the Bay Area’s higher-crime cities.
10. Barstow
Barstow, in San Bernardino County at the heart of the Mojave Desert, serves as a commercial hub for the Inland Empire and hosts several military installations, including the Marine Corps Logistics Base and the Army’s Ft. Irwin training center.
With a population of around 25,000, it has historically posted an elevated crime rate for a city of its size.
11. Lancaster
Lancaster, in the Antelope Valley portion of the Mojave Desert in northern Los Angeles County, has a population of 173,516, making it the 30th-largest city in California.
It’s a diverse city with a relatively affordable cost of living, but has historically posted a crime rate notably above the national average.
12. Modesto
Modesto, with a population of approximately 219,000, has historically posted an elevated violent crime rate, with property crime and vehicle theft among the most prevalent categories — the city has ranked among California’s higher car-theft-rate cities in recent years.
13. Inglewood
Inglewood, in southwestern Los Angeles County, has a population of 107,762. Though part of the Los Angeles metro area and often thought of as an LA neighborhood, it’s an independently incorporated city with its own identity. It has historically posted a crime rate above both the national and statewide averages.
14. Merced
Merced, in the Central Valley south of Modesto, has historically posted one of California’s higher homicide rates relative to population. Crime in Merced has remained elevated since the 1990s, though property crime rates have declined from earlier peaks.
15. Bakersfield
Bakersfield, population approximately 405,000, sits near California’s San Joaquin Valley and has historically posted an elevated violent crime rate. It’s also one of California’s more affordable places to live, so a safer neighborhood within the city can pair a lower cost of living with better safety outcomes. Gang activity has historically contributed to a meaningful share of the city’s violent crime.
At a Glance
| City | Population | Region | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emeryville | 12,905 | East Bay | Small population + heavy commercial density inflates per-capita rate |
| Commerce | ~12,000-13,000 | SE LA County | Same statistical pattern as Emeryville |
| Oakland | 440,646 | East Bay | 67 homicides in 2025, down from 126 in 2023 — largest decline in decades |
| San Bernardino | 222,101 | Inland Empire | Historically elevated violent crime rate |
| Stockton | 320,804 | Central Valley | Largest population among the top 5 |
Methodology For Determining the Most Dangerous Cities in California
This ranking examines crime rates—theft, burglary, and violent crime—per capita, using data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program and city/county government releases.
Because it’s per capita, smaller cities with a high ratio of commercial activity to residential population (Emeryville and Commerce, notably) can rank higher than much larger cities like Los Angeles that report more total incidents but have a far larger residential base to divide by. That’s a real statistical effect worth keeping in mind, not a flaw in the underlying data.
FAQ
Is Oakland still dangerous?
Oakland’s violent crime rate remains above the national average, but it’s improved dramatically: 67 homicides in 2025, down from 86 in 2024 and 126 in 2023, with citywide violent crime down 25% in 2025 alone. The trend is a genuine, sustained decline, not a temporary dip.
Is San Bernardino safe?
San Bernardino has a violent crime rate historically well above the national average and remains one of the higher-crime cities in Southern California, though it’s benefiting from the same statewide decline seen across most of California in 2024-2025.
Why do small cities like Emeryville rank as “most dangerous” over much bigger cities?
Per-capita crime rates divide total incidents by the resident population.
Emeryville and Commerce both have very small residential populations relative to their commercial and retail activity, so property crimes against businesses (largely committed by non-residents) inflate the per-capita rate even though the underlying violent crime risk to an actual resident may be lower than the headline number suggests.
Is California’s crime rate rising or falling?
Falling. The state’s official 2024 crime report shows violent crime down roughly 5-6% from 2023, continuing a decline into 2025 — though the rate remains somewhat above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Most Dangerous Cities in California: Bottom Line
Many of California’s higher-crime cities also have some of the state’s more affordable real estate, which can make them appealing on price alone. It’s worth weighing safety alongside cost, and worth noting that several cities on this list—Oakland especially—are trending meaningfully safer than older rankings suggest.
If you want to hear about the Most Conservative Cities in California, you can read our post.
Georges has been working in Wall Street for the last 16 years trading derivatives with hedge funds. He has been an active real estate investor for over a decade. Georges graduated from HEC Business School in Paris and holds a master in Finance from ESADE Barcelona.
